Oscillating epidemics in a dynamic network model: stochastic and mean-field analysis.

نویسندگان

  • András Szabó-Solticzky
  • Luc Berthouze
  • Istvan Z Kiss
  • Péter L Simon
چکیده

An adaptive network model using SIS epidemic propagation with link-type-dependent link activation and deletion is considered. Bifurcation analysis of the pairwise ODE approximation and the network-based stochastic simulation is carried out, showing that three typical behaviours may occur; namely, oscillations can be observed besides disease-free or endemic steady states. The oscillatory behaviour in the stochastic simulations is studied using Fourier analysis, as well as through analysing the exact master equations of the stochastic model. By going beyond simply comparing simulation results to mean-field models, our approach yields deeper insights into the observed phenomena and help better understand and map out the limitations of mean-field models.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Feasibility study of presenting a dynamic stochastic model based on mixed integer second-order conic programming to solve optimal distribution network reconfiguration in the presence of resources and demand-side management

Nowadays, with the use of devices such as fossil distributed generation and renewable energy resources and energy storage systems that are operated at the level of distribution networks, the problem of optimal reconfiguration has faced major challenges, so any change in the power of this resources can have different results in reconfiguration. Similarly, load changes during the day can lead to ...

متن کامل

Designing a new multi-objective fuzzy stochastic DEA model in a dynamic ‎environment to estimate efficiency of decision making units (Case Study: An Iranian Petroleum Company)

This ‎paper presents a new multi-objective fuzzy stochastic data envelopment analysis model          (MOFS-DEA) under mean chance constraints and common weights to estimate the efficiency of decision making units for future financial periods of them. In the initial MOFS-DEA ‏model, the outputs and inputs are ‎characterized by random triangular fuzzy variables with normal distribution, in which ...

متن کامل

Unsteady Magneto Hydro Dynamic Flow of a Second Order Fluid over an Oscillating Sheet with a Second Order Slip Flow Model

Unsteady slip-flow of second grade non-Newtonian electrically conducting fluid over an oscillating sheet has been considered and solved numerically. A second-order slip velocity model is used to predict the flow characteristic past the wall. With the assumption of infinite length in x-direction, velocity of the fluid can be assumed as a function of y and t, hence, with proper variable change pa...

متن کامل

Expected Duration of Dynamic Markov PERT Networks

Abstract : In this paper , we apply the stochastic dynamic programming to approximate the mean project completion time in dynamic Markov PERT networks. It is assumed that the activity durations are independent random variables with exponential distributions, but some social and economical problems influence the mean of activity durations. It is also assumed that the social problems evolve in ac...

متن کامل

Stochastic Spreading Processes on a Network Model Based on Regular Graphs

The dynamic behaviour of stochastic spreading processes on a network model based on k-regular graphs is investigated. The contact process and the susceptible-infected-susceptible model for the spread of epidemics are considered as prototype stochastic spreading processes. We study these on a network consisting of a mixture of 2and 3-fold coordinated randomly-connected nodes of concentration p a...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Journal of mathematical biology

دوره 72 5  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2016